Four of the fine coffee producing areas are reporting with same as last year or good increases in crops. This is excellent news, and I hope this will mean that prices will be a little lower than current trading numbers:
The National Coffee Association of Mexico have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of April were marginally 1.85% higher than the same month last year. This is good news since thus they have reported that the countries coffee exports for the first seven months of the present October 2010 to September 2011 coffee year are 14.75% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year. This dip in exports has however had no impact upon world fine washed arabica coffee supply, as their neighbours in Central America have reported an overall surge in exports over the past seven months, which more than counters a dip in Mexican coffee supply.
Colombia so far has reported increased production and exports for the first quarter of this year, but with the new main crop coming to a close, they have reported that coffee production for the month of April was 19% lower than the same month last year. This lower production has now however impacted as dramatically upon export volumes, with exports for the month reported to have only been 2% lower than the same month last year,
Meanwhile the Colombian Coffee Federation forecast that with a rain affected smaller mid year Mitaca crop soon to start that the country’s production for this calendar year shall remain a relatively modest 9 to 9.5 million bags, but nevertheless 15.4% to 21.8% larger than the miserable crop of two years ago. While with a large new main Colombian crop due to start in October, private forecasts foresee production for the next October 2011 to September 2012 coffee year rising towards the 10.5 million bags mark.
The new Peru crop of fine washed arabica coffees has started and there are many industry players visiting to assess its potential to supply fill in fine washed arabica coffees over the coming six months and ahead of the large new crops that are expected from Central America and Colombia at the end of the year, with forecasts that this new Peru crop shall be approximately 8% higher than the past crop, at around 4 million bags. These Peru coffees have become increasingly popular in the recent years, as blenders within the Colombian and Central America quality basket.
With the El Salvador new crop having been completed, the countries Coffee Council have reviewed their earlier new crop forecast and have increased it by 11.5%, to report a new crop of 1.84 million bags. This figure is higher than the many private trade and industry reports that have varied between 1.7 to 1.8 million bags, while one would expect that with good profits forthcoming from the sales of this new crop, that the countries farmers shall be providing full inputs and care to their farms, to maximise to potential of the next October 2011 to March 2012 harvest.